The Big Build Blowouts: Cost Overruns on Every Major Victorian Project

What Is the Big Build?

The Victorian Government's Big Build is the brand name for the Andrews and now Allan Labor Government's infrastructure program - a sweeping portfolio of road tunnels, rail upgrades, level crossing removals, and hospital projects that has dominated the state's budget since 2015.

On paper, it sounds like responsible long-term investment. In practice, it has become one of the most expensive infrastructure mismanagement stories in Australian history.

Let's look at the numbers.

The Blowouts, Project by Project

These aren't rounding errors. North East Link alone blew out by more than $10 billion - the kind of figure that could fully fund Victoria's public hospital system for over a year. The West Gate Tunnel was mired in a years-long dispute over contaminated soil, adding years of delays and billions in costs, with the bill ultimately passed to tollway users and taxpayers alike.

The 2026 Commonwealth Games cancellation was a particularly stunning moment. The government committed to hosting a regional Games, then cancelled it in July 2023 after internal costings reportedly showed the real bill had blown out to over $6 billion. Victorians were left with roughly $589 million in cancellation costs - money spent on nothing.

How Did We Get Here?

There are a few structural reasons why this keeps happening, and they're worth understanding clearly.

1. Optimism bias in government costings Governments consistently underestimate project costs to get projects approved - by the public, by cabinet, and by federal funding partners. Once construction begins, it's almost impossible to cancel, so cost overruns get absorbed. This is called the "lock-in" problem, and it's not unique to Victoria, but Victoria has made it an art form.

2. Contracts that favour builders Many Big Build contracts were structured as "design and construct" agreements where risks were theoretically shared with private partners - but in practice, disputes over contaminated soil, design changes, and pandemic delays were absorbed by the state. Builders knew the government couldn't walk away.

3. Political branding over planning The Big Build became a political identity for the Labor government. Announcements were timed to elections, ribbon-cuttings were treated as campaign material, and scrutiny was dismissed as anti-progress. The infrastructure itself became secondary to the narrative.

4. A weakened oversight ecosystem Victoria's Auditor-General and parliamentary committees have repeatedly raised red flags - but with a government holding a large lower house majority, there was limited mechanism to force accountability. Reports were tabled, concerns were noted, and construction continued.

Who Pays?

Every Victorian taxpayer - and particularly future ones.

Victoria's net debt is projected to reach approximately $188 billion by 2027, the highest of any state in Australian history in absolute terms. The interest bill alone is forecast to exceed $8 billion per year - money that cannot go to schools, hospitals, or cost-of-living relief.

This debt burden disproportionately affects: - Young Victorians who will inherit the fiscal hangover - Regional communities who received few of the benefits (and in the case of the Commonwealth Games, were actively misled) - Renters and lower-income households who rely on public services that are quietly squeezed when debt servicing crowds out the budget

Meanwhile, the construction companies, consulting firms, and legal practices that worked on these projects did very well indeed.

This Isn't Just a Labor Problem

It would be convenient to frame this as purely a Labor failure - and the scale of mismanagement under the Andrews Government is genuinely extraordinary - but the pattern crosses party lines.

The Federal Coalition government oversaw massive cost blowouts in the NBN (from $29 billion to over $51 billion), the Australian War Memorial expansion, and various defence procurement projects. NSW under Liberal governments saw the Sydney Light Rail project blow out from $1.6 billion to $3.1 billion, with a $576 million settlement paid to the contractor.

Cost overruns on big government projects are a bipartisan tradition. The difference is scale, frequency, and the apparent complete absence of consequences.

Why Does This Persist?

Because no one is truly accountable.

The ministers who approved the original costings have moved on, retired, or been reshuffled. The public servants who signed off are protected. The contractors have been paid. And at the next election, voters are asked to choose between two major parties - both of which have records of infrastructure mismanagement - with no real mechanism to say "we want this project, but not at any cost."

That's not democracy. That's a choice between two versions of the same problem.

What Would Direct Democracy Look Like Here?

Imagine if Victorians had been asked - clearly and honestly - whether they supported the North East Link at $15 billion. Then asked again when the revised figure hit $20 billion. Then $26 billion.

It is almost certain that voters would have demanded a fundamental rethink - a cost-benefit review, alternative options, or a hard spending cap. Instead, decisions were made in cabinet rooms and announced at press conferences.

Direct democracy doesn't mean voting on every bolt in a tunnel. It means citizens having genuine power over the big calls - including the right to say "stop, show us the real numbers, and ask us again."

At Direct Democracy, our model puts those decisions back in your hands. Members vote on policy positions. Elected representatives follow those instructions. Not spin. Not brand strategy. Your actual preferences, translated into actual policy.

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Want a say in how your tax dollars are spent? Take our [policy quiz](https://directdemocracy.com.au/quiz) to see where you stand on Victoria's infrastructure priorities - and find out how Direct Democracy would handle the next big project announcement differently. Or [join the party](https://directdemocracy.com.au/join) and start voting on real policy today.